Putin is in a corner, trying not to look weak
Mark Galeotti is a senior researcher at UMV, the Institute of International Relations Prague, and coordinator of its Centre for European Security. He is a specialist on Russian security affairs, intelligence and organized crime, and is also principal director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence, which specializes in Russia research. The opinions in this article belong to the author.
(CNN)Vladimir Putin's counter to new US sanctions on Russia was curiously out of date.
While
hyped as a sign that the Kremlin had both lost patience with President
Trump and was still willing to show its teeth, it probably better
demonstrates Moscow's diminishing range of options than anything else.
The US sanctions are directed toward hitting Russia's energy infrastructure in
response to its alleged interference in the 2016 US elections. By
contrast, the Kremlin is demanding that the Americans cut their
diplomatic missions staff in Russia by 755, bringing them down to the
same numbers as Moscow's people in Washington.
There
is a strange asymmetry, given that in the past sanctions and responses
have tended to mirror each other, not least for symbolic impact.
Therefore, it is likely that these were moves originally drawn up in reply to Barack Obama's decision back in December to kick out 35 diplomats and seal off two Russian compounds in response to meddling in the elections.
Back
then, Moscow decided not to respond, making a grand public play of its
forbearance. After all, Trump was heading for the White House, and there
were still hopes in Putin's team that his fulsome praise of Russia
might be translated into some practical gains.
Since
then, though, the Russians have learned the painful lesson that Trump
promises more than he can deliver and have watched as a suspicious
Congress, a hostile media and a rolling judicial investigation
increasingly tie his hands when it comes to working with Moscow.
With
this new round of sanctions, Putin clearly felt he could not afford not
to respond. For a leader who has built so much of his personal
legitimacy on his image as the defender of Russian interests, the risk
was that he would look weak.
But
the fact that the best they could do was, in effect, to pull some old
counter-sanctions out of the deep freeze, underlines the sharp disparity
between Moscow and Washington's positions.
This
latest move will certainly inconvenience both the US State Department
and also any Russian wanting a US visa or otherwise hoping to use the
services of America's embassy and consulates there. It will be
especially problematic for all those Russians employed by the US
government who will find themselves unemployed.
But
while Putin called these "biting" measures, that is something of an
exaggeration. In the grand scheme of things, they will be pretty limited
in their impact. Diplomatic contacts will continue, visas will be
processed -- albeit more slowly. Exchanges will still take place.
The
truth of the matter is that while Putin had rather more "biting"
options at his disposal, they would hurt him more that they would hurt
the Americans. NASA, for example, still depends on Russian rockets to
loft its astronauts to the International Space Station, and Moscow could
have refused to do this any more -- but that would have cost Russia's
cash-strapped space program almost a billion dollars in 2017 and 2018
alone.

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